WEBVTT - Why We Need Some AI Model Controls

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<v S1>Hey what's up? So I'm going to try to do

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<v S1>something pretty difficult here. I'm going to try to explain

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<v S1>why I, as somebody who is like free all the information,

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<v S1>free info and books for everyone, kind of like no

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<v S1>restrictions on information, no restrictions on technology, kind of like

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<v S1>an open, like quasi communist type view, not even communist,

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<v S1>more like hippie type view of like information should be

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<v S1>free open libraries, no governments or corporations controlling what we

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<v S1>can or cannot do or can or cannot read. Why

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<v S1>would someone like me who has those views, be in

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<v S1>support of controlling, in some small degree the rollout of

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<v S1>AI models and specifically around open source models, which is

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<v S1>kind of being discussed all the time. So a lot

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<v S1>of this is sort of heated up right now because

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<v S1>of Dario Amodei, the CEO of anthropic. And like his

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<v S1>testimony of being like being cautious of open source models

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<v S1>in my community is cybersecurity. So we are a skeptical bunch.

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<v S1>Like when we hear things like that, like some billionaire

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<v S1>is talking about, you know, you got to be careful

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<v S1>with those open source models. It's like, well, yeah, they're

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<v S1>competing against you. You make a closed source model, like

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<v S1>the natural sort of good, honest response to that is

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<v S1>to be skeptical, right? And I'm skeptical of it as well.

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<v S1>But I think that there is another angle to this,

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<v S1>which if you're not super cynical about it, you can

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<v S1>maybe think about the possibility that he is actually concerned

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<v S1>is actually a safety person. And in fact, that's what

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<v S1>his PhD is in and that he maybe has a

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<v S1>different argument. He has good reasons for this, which are

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<v S1>separate from, I'm sure, also having an inclination of like

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<v S1>wanting to win, wanting to have the best model, wanting

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<v S1>to make the most money, etc. so I think both

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<v S1>can be true at the same time. But what I'm

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<v S1>going to try to do is not describe to you

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<v S1>what Dalio believes. A whole separate talk show. And I've

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<v S1>got a whole site called dario.ai. I also have one

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<v S1>called samsi.ai. So you can go and get all of

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<v S1>their different like quotes and interviews and articles and like

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<v S1>actually study what they say and what they believe according

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<v S1>to their own words. And it's got some analysis there

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<v S1>as well, which tries to be super impartial. But what

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<v S1>I want to try to do is describe why I

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<v S1>believe we should have some very narrow, tight controls on

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<v S1>AI models in general. Obviously, it's fairly easy to do

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<v S1>with the closed source ones because you can control what

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<v S1>comes back largely. Prompt injection aside, but with open source models,

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<v S1>which is Dario's whole point, you can't control that, right?

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<v S1>You don't have any control. Any controls that are put in,

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<v S1>you can actually take out and release an uncontrolled version.

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<v S1>But what I want to do is just walk through

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<v S1>why I think we actually need these controls and kind

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<v S1>of lay it out and please stay all the way

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<v S1>through to the end, because certain parts of it might

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<v S1>trigger you and you might want to jump out because

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<v S1>you don't think I'm being controlling enough, or you think

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<v S1>I'm being too controlling or whatever it is, but let's

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<v S1>just walk through it politically adjacent. But this is mostly

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<v S1>kind of like a technical and thought exercise sort of

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<v S1>conversation argument. So the first thing to say is just

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<v S1>to reiterate what I started with, what my actual goal is,

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<v S1>is open models for everyone. Okay. Open models that are

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<v S1>just as good or better. I actually think open models

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<v S1>are going to pass the closed source models. I think

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<v S1>that's going to happen, I think, fairly soon. Who knows

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<v S1>if that's like a couple of months from now or

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<v S1>like a few years from now, I'm not really sure.

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<v S1>No one really knows that. But I want everyone of

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<v S1>every social class financial capabilities to have the same capabilities.

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<v S1>I wouldn't want amazing libraries in rich towns and like

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<v S1>really crappy books available in the poorer part of town, right?

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<v S1>And like, oh, you can't give them better books because

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<v S1>then they'll be able to compete with us. Like anything

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<v S1>that is controlling that, whether it's a government or a

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<v S1>corporation trying to control and keep smart models, smart intelligence capabilities,

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<v S1>able to lift people from their current circumstances into better circumstances.

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<v S1>I am very much against that. I'm against that for

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<v S1>an authoritarian government, and I'm against that, for an oligarchy

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<v S1>of like super rich corporations who want to control the information, right?

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<v S1>So that's the first thing. Okay. So my proposal, which

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<v S1>we'll talk about later, that is what it rests on.

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<v S1>It rests on that is the goal. That's what we're

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<v S1>trying to get to. So the primary topic here is

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<v S1>cybersecurity because that's what happened with the whole mythos thing, right?

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<v S1>So it got pulled. Somebody said this was possible. The

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<v S1>administration freaked out. They pulled it. Now, that's why we're

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<v S1>having this whole conversation about control. That's why all of

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<v S1>Dario's statements about open source and everything, it's all in

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<v S1>the light. It's all around cybersecurity. Now, I've been doing

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<v S1>cybersecurity for over 25 years at this point. So that's

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<v S1>kind of my background and my specialty also have pretty

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<v S1>strong specialty in AI as well. But most of my skill,

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<v S1>most of my career, my experience is all in cybersecurity.

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<v S1>I think I can say clearly and without much controversy

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<v S1>that earth as a system, as a technological system, as

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<v S1>a society, as a civilization is running on financial systems.

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<v S1>It's running on trading systems, it's running on global supply

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<v S1>chains of like food and goods and products and all

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<v S1>of that. Our critical infrastructure is running on the same software, right?

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<v S1>Our water energy distribution of things that we actually need

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<v S1>to work, our communication systems, purchases, all the different apps,

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<v S1>all the different companies that we have. The internet itself,

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<v S1>all based on software. And this software, I can tell you,

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<v S1>and pretty much everyone's going to agree with me here

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<v S1>who's an expert in the field. It's a soup sandwich,

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<v S1>as we would say in the military. The football bat

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<v S1>or a soup sandwich. It's a fucking mess. It really is.

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<v S1>And the whole mythos thing has revealed that because mythos

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<v S1>made it easier to find these vulnerabilities. But in fact,

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<v S1>these vulnerabilities have been there the whole time. We've been

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<v S1>finding them the whole time. Me and my friends who

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<v S1>are in the hacker community, we've had harnesses for years

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<v S1>already before AI that can actually find help us find

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<v S1>vulnerabilities much faster and actually Exploit them and report them

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<v S1>doing bug bounties and stuff like that. A very small

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<v S1>number of people who are able to do that, and

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<v S1>we thought in the community that we have this concept

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<v S1>of many eyes, so open source would produce much more

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<v S1>secure software because there are so many eyes in the world,

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<v S1>potentially millions of people who have the skills to go

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<v S1>and look at the stuff. Turns out that didn't really

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<v S1>help us. We had like the SSL vulnerability long, long

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<v S1>time ago. The code was there the whole time to

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<v S1>be looked at. Nobody was looking at it. So the

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<v S1>problem is, there's an effort that's required to look at

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<v S1>the code that you have to spend hours or days

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<v S1>or weeks, depending on the vulnerability with a super high

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<v S1>level of skill. So that person probably also has a job.

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<v S1>They have a family. So really, how much time do

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<v S1>they have aside from their time that they spend doing

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<v S1>that job in their work and the time they have

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<v S1>with their family and whatever other like endeavors. They're doing

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<v S1>their hobbies or whatever. How much time do these very

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<v S1>few experts really have for us to go and look

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<v S1>at all of open source and find vulnerabilities? Turns out

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<v S1>not very much. That's why when mythos came out, it

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<v S1>wasn't the only thing that could find these vulnerabilities. What

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<v S1>it did was it just made it so much easier, right?

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<v S1>Even if you didn't have a super harness, it can

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<v S1>kind of make its own harness and it could really

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<v S1>take you pretty far. It take you even further if

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<v S1>you actually put it inside of a harness. But like,

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<v S1>this stuff has been there forever. And unfortunately, this stuff

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<v S1>is still there. Like mythos didn't clean everything last wing

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<v S1>did not clean everything. These problems still exist and are

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<v S1>there to be found by additional searching. And the problem

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<v S1>is we're talking about windows. We're talking about Linux especially,

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<v S1>and we're talking about IoT devices. We're talking about the

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<v S1>foundation of Everything that runs our society. Okay? Everything is

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<v S1>running on this stuff. Everything is running on this stuff.

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<v S1>Underpinning it, we have libraries, we have applications, we have

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<v S1>operating systems, we have firmware, and all this stuff is

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<v S1>full of bugs. This episode is sponsored by maze and

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0:09:48.500 --> 0:09:51.540
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<v S1>The entire financial system, the entire economy, everything is based

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<v S1>on this. And if you talk to any experts or

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<v S1>read any books around this, around fragility and around interconnected dependencies,

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<v S1>it is relatively easy, the experts believe, to tear down

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<v S1>a system, take down Amazon regions, take down a financial

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<v S1>system or whatever, and then start producing a panic. Like

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<v S1>you don't actually have to manufacture a panic. It might

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<v S1>actually produce a panic by itself, which leads to more

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<v S1>and more traffic. And then now there's campaigns and conspiracy theories,

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<v S1>and there's a lot of fragility right now around the

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<v S1>system itself, but also the reaction, our reaction that we

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<v S1>would have to, oh, there's a thing that happens over here. Oh,

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<v S1>little explosive device goes off over here. Oh, ISIS just

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<v S1>claimed that they did this to the stock market. Maybe

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<v S1>they did, maybe they didn't. But it is easy to

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<v S1>coordinate now. It is much easier than previously to coordinate

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<v S1>a series of attacks on one or more of these

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<v S1>systems using cybersecurity attacks that can break things. Okay, maybe

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<v S1>it can't break them all at the same time. Maybe

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<v S1>it can't break the most secure ones. But what I'm arguing,

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<v S1>and I think a lot of people would argue with me,

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<v S1>is that it's not hard to break some of them.

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<v S1>And a certain combination of breaking some of them can

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<v S1>lead to larger breaks, which produce actual serious problems. And

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<v S1>a lot of experts talk about the fact that, like

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<v S1>if the supply chain to like grocery stores were to

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<v S1>stop for X number of days, that would be really

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<v S1>bad because it kind of just cascades down and breaks

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<v S1>other things. Same thing with like trust in the financial system,

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<v S1>the trading systems, the banks. What if the banks like

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<v S1>suddenly went to zero? They're restoring from backups. Like there's

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<v S1>all sorts of like doomsday scenarios you could paint like, oh,

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<v S1>worst of the worst. I'm talking about lower level stuff,

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<v S1>smaller things leading to medium things and or doing many

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<v S1>small things or many medium things all combined to produce

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<v S1>ultimately some really, really bad outcomes. So my argument here

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<v S1>on the cyber side is not that mythos is just crazy.

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<v S1>It's just like the best thing ever. There's a lot

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<v S1>of hype there. A lot of that is complete bullshit,

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<v S1>but it is absolutely true that it is a major

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<v S1>step above. It's also true that it was surprising to

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<v S1>anthropic that it happened. Right. And of course, marketing jumped

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<v S1>on that. And now we have this whole mess, right?

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<v S1>But it was surprising to anthropic that this happened. They

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<v S1>were just building another coding model. It turned out it

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<v S1>was good at other things. And guess what? We've been

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<v S1>trying to generalize this stuff for years and years. That's

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<v S1>the whole goal is to have is everyone's trying to

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<v S1>move towards general intelligence. Well, it turns out this thing's

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<v S1>pretty good at general intelligence. Coding is trying to accomplish tasks, right?

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<v S1>Hacking things is just another version of trying to accomplish

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<v S1>a task. Ultimately, this is all about goals, right? You've

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<v S1>heard of goal, you've heard of the loops. We're all

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<v S1>kind of chasing the same thing, which is generally competent

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<v S1>AI models, right? And one of the capabilities is, yes, cyber.

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<v S1>It's going to naturally get better at cyber as a

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<v S1>result of getting better at doing those general things. So

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<v S1>it is absolutely true, in my opinion, that these things

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<v S1>are getting better and better at cyber. Not too many

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<v S1>people disagree with that. We don't know the exact speed

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<v S1>that it's going to get better at getting better. Right?

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<v S1>We're at the same time, we're trying to increase the

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<v S1>speed that these things actually get better and smarter and

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<v S1>more capable. Long horizon tasks, all that kind of stuff.

0:13:57.380 --> 0:14:01.700
<v S1>So my basic argument is that and this is super,

0:14:01.740 --> 0:14:07.770
<v S1>super basic, right? We don't want everyone on the entire

0:14:07.770 --> 0:14:13.370
<v S1>planet to have the best possible thing that hacks the

0:14:13.370 --> 0:14:19.690
<v S1>best possible way. Okay, so mythos plus, plus plus, which

0:14:19.690 --> 0:14:23.050
<v S1>comes out four months from now or four years from

0:14:23.050 --> 0:14:26.570
<v S1>now or whenever it comes out. This is extremely low

0:14:26.570 --> 0:14:31.450
<v S1>bar argument. We don't give the best possible hacking system

0:14:32.610 --> 0:14:39.130
<v S1>to everyone on the planet in open source for free, constantly,

0:14:39.650 --> 0:14:42.690
<v S1>as it's rolling out, as we're building it. So it's

0:14:42.690 --> 0:14:46.730
<v S1>like literally running with scissors at full speed and like

0:14:46.730 --> 0:14:50.090
<v S1>just sprinting, right? Give it to everyone, give it to everyone,

0:14:50.090 --> 0:14:52.810
<v S1>give it to everyone. There's no chance of anything bad happening,

0:14:52.810 --> 0:14:57.530
<v S1>no controls whatsoever. That is the low, super low bar

0:14:57.650 --> 0:15:01.290
<v S1>that I'm arguing against. Is that that is an extremely

0:15:01.290 --> 0:15:05.800
<v S1>dumb thing to do. Okay. This is completely separate from

0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:09.720
<v S1>the other issue, which is like, what if as we

0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:12.920
<v S1>keep expanding the models like they wake up, what if

0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:15.160
<v S1>they come up with their own set of goals? How

0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:18.160
<v S1>can we be sure they don't have their own alignment

0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:21.000
<v S1>like interests, and they want to go in a different

0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:24.240
<v S1>direction that diverges from the goals of humanity as a whole?

0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:27.960
<v S1>What if they become conscious at some sort of emergence level,

0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:30.880
<v S1>which maybe that's going to happen next month? Maybe that's

0:15:30.880 --> 0:15:32.400
<v S1>going to happen in ten years from now. We don't

0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:34.240
<v S1>know when that's going to be or if it's going

0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:37.760
<v S1>to happen, but it could happen. The point is, if

0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:41.440
<v S1>you are building in improving the AI at full speed,

0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:46.200
<v S1>you're basically running with scissors and you're basically just being

0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:50.920
<v S1>as irresponsible as possible by just handing it to everyone

0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:56.040
<v S1>the moment it comes out. Right? And I have a

0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:58.760
<v S1>way of describing this. I just came up with like yesterday,

0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:01.440
<v S1>which I think is useful. Just imagine you're reading like

0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:05.430
<v S1>a sci fi book and you're reading about some other planet.

0:16:05.430 --> 0:16:08.070
<v S1>It's in the Andromeda galaxy. It's not in the Milky Way.

0:16:08.590 --> 0:16:11.510
<v S1>It's the fourth planet from the sun instead of the third.

0:16:12.070 --> 0:16:16.990
<v S1>And they have like an authoritarian government. In fact, democracy

0:16:16.990 --> 0:16:20.430
<v S1>is on the decline. Authoritarianism is on the rise. They

0:16:20.470 --> 0:16:25.070
<v S1>are a nuclear enabled planet. They have multiple religions which

0:16:25.070 --> 0:16:29.710
<v S1>all kind of hate each other. There's economic concerns. People

0:16:29.710 --> 0:16:33.390
<v S1>are losing jobs because of automation long before AI. Now

0:16:33.390 --> 0:16:35.790
<v S1>they're worried AI is going to take even more jobs.

0:16:36.470 --> 0:16:39.710
<v S1>So there's kind of like there's drama on this planet.

0:16:39.710 --> 0:16:43.310
<v S1>Keep in mind it's got a different name. It's like, whoa, Wang,

0:16:43.470 --> 0:16:45.430
<v S1>the name of the planet, it's the fourth planet. Like,

0:16:45.470 --> 0:16:48.590
<v S1>think of this. We're reading a sci fi book. Okay.

0:16:49.110 --> 0:16:53.590
<v S1>And the protagonist in this story, in this sci fi story,

0:16:54.590 --> 0:16:57.470
<v S1>is someone who works at an open source lab, let's say,

0:16:57.470 --> 0:17:00.510
<v S1>in France or something, because they're all about like liberty,

0:17:01.060 --> 0:17:04.220
<v S1>Free the information. Keep the books open. Right. So this,

0:17:04.220 --> 0:17:07.620
<v S1>this researcher is like releasing this thing. And the name

0:17:07.619 --> 0:17:11.899
<v S1>of the model is like freethought, freethought version three. And

0:17:11.899 --> 0:17:15.739
<v S1>it is actually whatever. Let's just pretend it's AGI. We

0:17:15.740 --> 0:17:18.019
<v S1>won't even talk about the definition, but let's just say

0:17:18.020 --> 0:17:21.820
<v S1>it's like mythos plus plus, and it's amazing. It can

0:17:21.820 --> 0:17:24.300
<v S1>help you with your homework. It's just like it does

0:17:24.300 --> 0:17:28.740
<v S1>amazing things for humanity, but because of their beliefs or whatever,

0:17:28.740 --> 0:17:32.380
<v S1>they don't want to put any controls whatsoever. Okay. So

0:17:32.419 --> 0:17:35.059
<v S1>you can literally ask it to do the worst possible

0:17:35.100 --> 0:17:39.859
<v S1>harm to your neighbors to blow up a 7-Eleven. You

0:17:39.859 --> 0:17:42.100
<v S1>could give it anything and it will give you a

0:17:42.100 --> 0:17:45.379
<v S1>perfect answer, just the same way that it does for

0:17:45.379 --> 0:17:49.060
<v S1>positive things. It will basically help you do those things.

0:17:49.060 --> 0:17:51.299
<v S1>It will help you hack anything. It will help you

0:17:51.340 --> 0:17:55.180
<v S1>kill anyone and get away with it. It's a criminal mastermind,

0:17:55.179 --> 0:17:59.219
<v S1>but it's also like the best possible, like angelic system

0:17:59.260 --> 0:18:02.449
<v S1>help you do both. It has no goals or alignment.

0:18:02.449 --> 0:18:04.090
<v S1>It just lets you do whatever you want to do,

0:18:04.609 --> 0:18:07.529
<v S1>and it's going to use all of its super intelligence

0:18:07.530 --> 0:18:10.170
<v S1>to help you do that thing. My argument is that

0:18:10.169 --> 0:18:12.490
<v S1>if you're reading this in the first few pages of

0:18:12.490 --> 0:18:15.529
<v S1>this sci fi novel, and this is your protagonist who

0:18:15.530 --> 0:18:18.650
<v S1>works at this lab, kind of like Miles Dyson at

0:18:18.689 --> 0:18:21.890
<v S1>like in the Terminator movies or whatever, the person who's

0:18:21.929 --> 0:18:25.850
<v S1>like creating this thing, getting ready to release it. You

0:18:25.889 --> 0:18:29.690
<v S1>would be thinking as a sci fi reader, maybe this

0:18:29.689 --> 0:18:33.249
<v S1>is bad. They are rushing too quickly. Maybe we already

0:18:33.250 --> 0:18:35.330
<v S1>know the plot of this book. The plot of this

0:18:35.330 --> 0:18:39.010
<v S1>book is that this was maybe a dumb idea to

0:18:39.050 --> 0:18:43.609
<v S1>give this powerful of intelligence to. Let's say it was

0:18:43.609 --> 0:18:45.729
<v S1>25 billion people on this planet. Let's say it's a

0:18:45.730 --> 0:18:48.450
<v S1>bigger planet than ours or whatever, or they're further along.

0:18:49.250 --> 0:18:53.330
<v S1>So let's just give this to everyone. Let's just give

0:18:53.330 --> 0:18:56.770
<v S1>it to everyone. Let's just that's what this lab, where

0:18:56.770 --> 0:18:59.999
<v S1>this protagonist works, that's what they're trying to do, right?

0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:02.199
<v S1>So there's discussion in the first part of the book.

0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:04.680
<v S1>Should we do it? Should we not do it? My

0:19:04.679 --> 0:19:07.919
<v S1>argument is that if you see this from another planet,

0:19:07.959 --> 0:19:13.520
<v S1>another race of people, another situation, it's kind of obvious

0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:17.000
<v S1>that this is dangerous, right? We shouldn't do this. Have

0:19:17.000 --> 0:19:19.480
<v S1>some sort of guardrails. We should slow down. We should

0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:22.239
<v S1>have all the governments get together and talk about it

0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:24.639
<v S1>or something like that. Right. So I think that part

0:19:24.679 --> 0:19:29.040
<v S1>is super obvious where I think the breakdown is, is

0:19:29.040 --> 0:19:33.680
<v S1>when it's like, okay, but now what? Right. So if

0:19:33.679 --> 0:19:37.480
<v S1>you're with me up to this point, right? And you

0:19:37.480 --> 0:19:40.320
<v S1>understand that if you're reading this book, it's bad for

0:19:40.359 --> 0:19:45.560
<v S1>that race on that planet to release this unrestricted open

0:19:45.560 --> 0:19:48.960
<v S1>source AI to everyone on the planet so they could

0:19:48.959 --> 0:19:53.320
<v S1>do maximum harm with maximum efficiency and like, get away

0:19:53.320 --> 0:19:57.320
<v S1>with it, then why would we want to do it

0:19:57.320 --> 0:20:00.549
<v S1>for our planet, because that is literally the moment that

0:20:00.550 --> 0:20:03.310
<v S1>we are actually in right now. We are literally that

0:20:03.310 --> 0:20:07.109
<v S1>book in that world right now. That's what we have.

0:20:07.149 --> 0:20:11.469
<v S1>We are precarious from a nuclear standpoint already, right? One

0:20:11.469 --> 0:20:14.509
<v S1>small mistake. We're all blown up from nuclear weapons, right?

0:20:14.550 --> 0:20:18.830
<v S1>Everyone's known that forever, right? We've got all this situation

0:20:18.830 --> 0:20:23.949
<v S1>with our governments. We've got economies having trouble. We're transitioning

0:20:23.949 --> 0:20:28.830
<v S1>potentially out of like labor and jobs because of automation

0:20:28.830 --> 0:20:32.629
<v S1>and AI. Like there's just massive stress in this world.

0:20:32.949 --> 0:20:35.789
<v S1>And we have a lot of conflict right now. It

0:20:35.790 --> 0:20:38.949
<v S1>is not a great time to enable every single person

0:20:38.949 --> 0:20:43.389
<v S1>on the planet with ways of harming countries and people

0:20:43.389 --> 0:20:47.189
<v S1>and neighbors and neighbors, dogs who bark too much or whatever, right?

0:20:47.590 --> 0:20:51.310
<v S1>Killing your spouse, like all sorts of things. So people

0:20:51.310 --> 0:20:54.310
<v S1>wish they could do harm, right? A very small percentage,

0:20:54.310 --> 0:20:57.940
<v S1>I would say vast majority of people are massively good,

0:20:57.939 --> 0:21:02.260
<v S1>not evil. But there's a large group of people, let's

0:21:02.260 --> 0:21:07.100
<v S1>say a tiny, tiny percent like 0.01% of the entire planet.

0:21:07.100 --> 0:21:10.020
<v S1>You know what that is multiplied by 8 billion people.

0:21:10.699 --> 0:21:13.579
<v S1>It is a crap ton of people, and they are

0:21:13.619 --> 0:21:16.940
<v S1>the type of people who they don't do bad things

0:21:18.060 --> 0:21:22.260
<v S1>because they don't have the expertise to. And they would

0:21:22.260 --> 0:21:25.459
<v S1>get caught if they tried, right? I don't know the

0:21:25.459 --> 0:21:28.340
<v S1>number of those people. I don't know the percentage. No

0:21:28.340 --> 0:21:30.899
<v S1>one really does. I'm sure we could research it and

0:21:30.899 --> 0:21:34.379
<v S1>find out, but I could tell you it's probably millions

0:21:34.379 --> 0:21:37.220
<v S1>of people, if not tens or hundreds of millions of people.

0:21:38.619 --> 0:21:41.219
<v S1>And it doesn't mean they would become a super villain,

0:21:41.219 --> 0:21:44.899
<v S1>but they would potentially do some harm, right? Especially if

0:21:44.899 --> 0:21:47.419
<v S1>they're under massive pressure and it's just something they have

0:21:47.419 --> 0:21:51.019
<v S1>to get done. Now, another way to think about this

0:21:51.020 --> 0:21:53.699
<v S1>whole thing. I just talked to my friend Jason about

0:21:53.699 --> 0:21:57.969
<v S1>this in extreme detail, and I think we came up

0:21:57.969 --> 0:22:00.369
<v S1>with a good point about this. A good way to

0:22:00.369 --> 0:22:07.850
<v S1>explain this. We have laws that don't prohibit you from

0:22:07.850 --> 0:22:11.050
<v S1>doing things that are bad, right? Because if you watch

0:22:11.050 --> 0:22:13.290
<v S1>like forensic files or something, a lot of those people

0:22:13.290 --> 0:22:16.290
<v S1>who actually do the things, they actually commit these crimes

0:22:16.290 --> 0:22:19.809
<v S1>that are just regular people and for whatever reason, they

0:22:19.850 --> 0:22:22.330
<v S1>were in this bad situation, or they had too many drinks,

0:22:22.330 --> 0:22:24.730
<v S1>or they were going through a divorce or whatever, and

0:22:24.730 --> 0:22:29.250
<v S1>they committed the crime, right? We have laws that apply

0:22:29.290 --> 0:22:34.050
<v S1>friction so that somebody who is mostly good hits a

0:22:34.050 --> 0:22:37.529
<v S1>little bit of friction, so they don't cross over and

0:22:37.810 --> 0:22:40.209
<v S1>start doing the bad thing, or they actually do the

0:22:40.209 --> 0:22:43.289
<v S1>bad thing they can never recover from. They kill someone

0:22:43.290 --> 0:22:45.449
<v S1>or they hurt someone, they end up in jail or whatever.

0:22:45.530 --> 0:22:49.050
<v S1>We have friction in place through all sorts of like,

0:22:49.730 --> 0:22:53.090
<v S1>laws at different layers to try to make sure that

0:22:53.090 --> 0:22:56.479
<v S1>this doesn't happen, right? So for example, if you walk

0:22:56.480 --> 0:23:00.200
<v S1>into a gun store and like the most gun friendly

0:23:00.199 --> 0:23:03.800
<v S1>place in the world, like Texas or something, and you're

0:23:03.800 --> 0:23:06.959
<v S1>like seething, you're just like sweating, you're super angry. And

0:23:06.959 --> 0:23:09.039
<v S1>you're like, yeah, I want that handgun right there. I

0:23:09.040 --> 0:23:11.800
<v S1>want it right now. Oh, really? Why do you want that?

0:23:11.840 --> 0:23:14.040
<v S1>It's like, oh, my wife. I can't believe it. I

0:23:14.080 --> 0:23:17.320
<v S1>caught her on the ring camera. She did this or that. Like,

0:23:17.320 --> 0:23:20.439
<v S1>they will not give you the gun. They just won't.

0:23:20.679 --> 0:23:23.600
<v S1>They might even, like, put you on a list of

0:23:23.600 --> 0:23:26.799
<v S1>where you can't buy a gun in that store anymore, right?

0:23:26.840 --> 0:23:29.280
<v S1>We have those types of controls. We also have these

0:23:29.280 --> 0:23:33.000
<v S1>types of controls with like drugs. You can't just go

0:23:33.000 --> 0:23:37.720
<v S1>and get fentanyl. You can't get fentanyl at 7-Eleven. You

0:23:37.719 --> 0:23:41.760
<v S1>can't get heroin at Safeway. Does that mean you can't

0:23:41.760 --> 0:23:44.679
<v S1>get these drugs? No it doesn't. They're available on the

0:23:44.679 --> 0:23:48.959
<v S1>dark web. They're probably available behind Safeway at night. There

0:23:49.000 --> 0:23:51.959
<v S1>are ways to get these drugs. It doesn't mean just

0:23:51.959 --> 0:23:54.190
<v S1>because there are ways to get them that we should

0:23:54.189 --> 0:23:58.109
<v S1>make them widely available to everyone. The moment they have

0:23:58.109 --> 0:24:02.389
<v S1>the first thought of taking that drug or committing suicide,

0:24:02.389 --> 0:24:07.869
<v S1>or killing someone, or hurting someone, or psychologically manipulating someone

0:24:08.230 --> 0:24:12.989
<v S1>or doing a terrorist event. There are pushbacks all throughout

0:24:12.990 --> 0:24:18.869
<v S1>society to try to dissuade that person from doing it right. Friction.

0:24:18.869 --> 0:24:23.190
<v S1>Layers of friction. So what I'm really talking about here

0:24:23.709 --> 0:24:28.350
<v S1>is I'm talking about a system that is extremely tightly controlled,

0:24:28.350 --> 0:24:33.550
<v S1>narrowly controlled, okay, narrowly controlled, so that when we have

0:24:33.550 --> 0:24:37.550
<v S1>this free thought model that comes out, that is mythos

0:24:37.550 --> 0:24:43.030
<v S1>plus plus, right? And I think we're ridiculously close to

0:24:43.070 --> 0:24:47.550
<v S1>this actually happening. Free thought version 3.0, whatever it is,

0:24:48.790 --> 0:24:52.779
<v S1>it comes out and it's just the most amazing thing ever.

0:24:52.820 --> 0:24:55.379
<v S1>It can help you start your business. It can. Just

0:24:55.419 --> 0:24:58.340
<v S1>like all the things we talk about with agents that

0:24:58.340 --> 0:25:03.060
<v S1>fully enable you. But it could also fully enable mass

0:25:03.060 --> 0:25:05.739
<v S1>crime and all the things we talked about harming people.

0:25:06.300 --> 0:25:11.379
<v S1>Teach me how to psychologically manipulate my family or my

0:25:11.540 --> 0:25:16.619
<v S1>significant other. Help me run the most insane, like gaslighting

0:25:16.619 --> 0:25:19.459
<v S1>campaign to convince them to do this or do that.

0:25:19.459 --> 0:25:23.419
<v S1>Like these things are all fully capable from a model

0:25:23.419 --> 0:25:26.740
<v S1>who knows how to manipulate human psychology, right? It can

0:25:26.740 --> 0:25:28.939
<v S1>give you step by step guide on exactly how to

0:25:28.939 --> 0:25:35.100
<v S1>do this stuff right. My idea here is essentially we

0:25:35.100 --> 0:25:39.179
<v S1>have this free thought version 3.0 model right now in

0:25:39.179 --> 0:25:44.660
<v S1>its released form, in its free form, in the Non-controlled form,

0:25:45.179 --> 0:25:50.659
<v S1>it would be a criminal mastermind, infinitely smarter than, say,

0:25:50.699 --> 0:25:54.490
<v S1>Einstein or whatever on all these different fields. Biology, all

0:25:54.490 --> 0:25:58.330
<v S1>these different capabilities. It would be a super mastermind and

0:25:58.330 --> 0:26:02.090
<v S1>it would be available to everyone. Okay. Which is basically

0:26:02.090 --> 0:26:07.490
<v S1>7-Eleven and Safeway and whatever the equivalent stores are, right?

0:26:09.090 --> 0:26:11.489
<v S1>And you would just be able to do that. And

0:26:11.490 --> 0:26:14.970
<v S1>my argument is that would be bad for society. Now

0:26:15.129 --> 0:26:18.489
<v S1>what do you do instead? You have these tight little controls,

0:26:18.850 --> 0:26:25.609
<v S1>psychological manipulation, misinformation campaigns, the creation of weapons, the creation

0:26:25.609 --> 0:26:31.690
<v S1>of drugs, the distribution of these drugs, basically criminal activities,

0:26:32.490 --> 0:26:37.690
<v S1>harmful malicious activities, but with these very tight labels. Okay.

0:26:38.050 --> 0:26:41.290
<v S1>So what we do is the proposal, what we do

0:26:41.290 --> 0:26:46.050
<v S1>is we come up with a global joint standard for this,

0:26:46.409 --> 0:26:49.129
<v S1>for what these labels are and what the controls are,

0:26:49.290 --> 0:26:54.509
<v S1>the types of prompts and questions that they would defend against. Right.

0:26:55.270 --> 0:27:00.350
<v S1>So in this model, Free thought version three, when it

0:27:00.350 --> 0:27:04.229
<v S1>gets released, it is released on Hugging Face. Hugging face.

0:27:04.590 --> 0:27:07.509
<v S1>Let's just call it safe. SAFE. It's not a real

0:27:07.510 --> 0:27:09.749
<v S1>I'm not sure the real acronym I'm going to try

0:27:09.750 --> 0:27:11.430
<v S1>to make here. I'm going to actually try to build

0:27:11.429 --> 0:27:14.949
<v S1>this thing, but let's just say it's called safe. Okay?

0:27:15.189 --> 0:27:19.990
<v S1>Hugging face is a safe distribution center, okay? Because it's legal.

0:27:19.990 --> 0:27:22.829
<v S1>It's a legal place. The governments all around the world

0:27:22.830 --> 0:27:28.710
<v S1>approve hugging face. Why? Because they distribute things according to safe. Now,

0:27:30.590 --> 0:27:32.990
<v S1>this is important. Going back to the whole mission of, like,

0:27:33.030 --> 0:27:39.869
<v S1>open information, the free thought 3.0 model is just as

0:27:39.869 --> 0:27:44.310
<v S1>smart or smarter than anything from anthropic. Anything from OpenAI

0:27:45.310 --> 0:27:53.260
<v S1>on 99.999% of all use cases, and in fact, 99.9999.

0:27:53.300 --> 0:27:57.659
<v S1>Whatever percentage of all people who use the model will

0:27:57.659 --> 0:28:02.699
<v S1>never know that it's actually controlled, that it's actually restricted. Why?

0:28:02.740 --> 0:28:06.220
<v S1>Because that percentage of people are good people. They just

0:28:06.219 --> 0:28:09.859
<v S1>never want to do these types of things. Okay. At

0:28:09.859 --> 0:28:14.260
<v S1>the same time, the evil versions of these models, because

0:28:14.260 --> 0:28:18.699
<v S1>the moment Free Thought 3.0 comes out, it'll be jailbroken.

0:28:19.219 --> 0:28:21.780
<v S1>All the controls will be stripped out. That will go

0:28:21.780 --> 0:28:27.019
<v S1>to the underground, to the dark web, to wherever. BitTorrent, right.

0:28:27.780 --> 0:28:32.500
<v S1>Truly evil people are going to have the most nasty stuff.

0:28:32.740 --> 0:28:35.619
<v S1>That is not what we're trying to protect. That is

0:28:35.619 --> 0:28:39.300
<v S1>not possible to protect, right? What we're talking about is

0:28:39.300 --> 0:28:45.700
<v S1>the 99.99% of people who are good, who might be

0:28:47.209 --> 0:28:51.410
<v S1>Psychologically under pressure, they might be kind of forced to

0:28:51.450 --> 0:28:55.530
<v S1>go do something. Like they're in a bad state and

0:28:55.530 --> 0:28:59.170
<v S1>they start thinking negative thoughts. How do I kill myself?

0:28:59.170 --> 0:29:01.850
<v S1>How do I hurt someone else? How do I disrupt

0:29:01.850 --> 0:29:06.330
<v S1>this economy? How do I hack my local community bank

0:29:06.730 --> 0:29:10.850
<v S1>and give myself 100,000 more dollars? These are the types

0:29:10.850 --> 0:29:15.250
<v S1>of nudges and the types of like, friction pieces that

0:29:15.250 --> 0:29:19.170
<v S1>we want to apply to the vast majority of people. Okay.

0:29:20.410 --> 0:29:25.290
<v S1>Just so that in their darkest moments, they're not enabled

0:29:25.290 --> 0:29:29.009
<v S1>to go and do this thing. Now, again, if they're

0:29:29.010 --> 0:29:32.450
<v S1>actually evil, they could just go and do the super

0:29:32.450 --> 0:29:34.570
<v S1>bad thing because they can go and find the super

0:29:34.610 --> 0:29:38.050
<v S1>bad thing and it's fully available. They can use it

0:29:38.050 --> 0:29:41.410
<v S1>or whatever. At that point, though, that's a lot of friction.

0:29:41.530 --> 0:29:43.289
<v S1>You have to go get the thing. You have to

0:29:43.330 --> 0:29:45.850
<v S1>download it, you have to run it, and you have

0:29:45.850 --> 0:29:49.480
<v S1>to do so while knowing that like this is violating

0:29:50.080 --> 0:29:55.480
<v S1>global earth international law to do this right. Another facet

0:29:55.480 --> 0:29:57.560
<v S1>of this, which is important is like, what if you're

0:29:57.560 --> 0:29:59.880
<v S1>an expert? And this is another thing I talked about

0:29:59.880 --> 0:30:03.719
<v S1>with Jason. What if you're a cybersecurity expert and free

0:30:03.760 --> 0:30:08.640
<v S1>thought 3.0 by default has a cybersecurity designation, a blocker

0:30:08.640 --> 0:30:11.759
<v S1>on it, right? Because again, you don't want the whole

0:30:11.760 --> 0:30:14.440
<v S1>planet to be able to instantly just go hack something.

0:30:15.000 --> 0:30:17.880
<v S1>What do you do then? And I think the answer is,

0:30:19.160 --> 0:30:21.120
<v S1>and I think Jason agreed with this, I don't want

0:30:21.160 --> 0:30:23.600
<v S1>to speak for him. I'm sure we'll talk about it later.

0:30:23.600 --> 0:30:28.400
<v S1>But I think the solution here is you have people

0:30:28.400 --> 0:30:32.800
<v S1>who are known experts in cybersecurity and known experts in

0:30:33.240 --> 0:30:36.239
<v S1>creating viruses, like at the CDC or the World Health

0:30:36.240 --> 0:30:39.760
<v S1>Organization or whatever. They're trying to make vaccines or whatever

0:30:39.760 --> 0:30:43.600
<v S1>they're trying to do. That's like legal above board. And

0:30:43.640 --> 0:30:48.190
<v S1>there are designated experts in here who have credentials and

0:30:48.190 --> 0:30:52.550
<v S1>the system itself, right? This whatever, this global standard or whatever.

0:30:53.070 --> 0:30:56.150
<v S1>This basically looks into the person. If they identify themselves

0:30:56.150 --> 0:31:00.430
<v S1>at this as this trusted expert or whatever, they get

0:31:00.830 --> 0:31:06.390
<v S1>free thought 3.0. But without that thing protection in place.

0:31:06.830 --> 0:31:10.070
<v S1>So for me, it'll remove the cyber protection. It won't

0:31:10.070 --> 0:31:16.190
<v S1>remove the viral like create viruses in your backyard protection, right.

0:31:16.310 --> 0:31:18.550
<v S1>Because I don't need that one. Why would I ask

0:31:18.550 --> 0:31:23.430
<v S1>those questions anyway? Right. So I get the cyber approved

0:31:23.430 --> 0:31:28.390
<v S1>model right. And here's the other important part. I should

0:31:28.390 --> 0:31:29.830
<v S1>be able to do the same thing with the closed

0:31:29.830 --> 0:31:32.749
<v S1>source models. That same designation that put me as an

0:31:32.750 --> 0:31:35.950
<v S1>expert in cyber security. That means open AI should also

0:31:35.950 --> 0:31:41.590
<v S1>let me use whatever GPT 75, which is super powerful

0:31:41.590 --> 0:31:44.070
<v S1>on cyber, but that would be tagged in my account

0:31:44.070 --> 0:31:46.779
<v S1>as approved for me. So all the prompts and everything

0:31:46.780 --> 0:31:50.140
<v S1>that runs. Same with the open source models that would

0:31:50.140 --> 0:31:53.420
<v S1>be approved for me because of who I am now,

0:31:54.580 --> 0:31:59.300
<v S1>that would just be the above board. This is the 99.999%.

0:31:59.340 --> 0:32:02.460
<v S1>Who are the above board experts who are using this stuff,

0:32:03.060 --> 0:32:08.259
<v S1>and the non-experts just everyone who gets the regular free

0:32:08.300 --> 0:32:12.100
<v S1>thought 3.0 model, and that one has these controls in it,

0:32:12.100 --> 0:32:14.820
<v S1>but they never know because they're not asking those prompts anyway.

0:32:15.540 --> 0:32:19.020
<v S1>And most importantly, out of all of this free thought,

0:32:19.060 --> 0:32:24.140
<v S1>3.0 is just as good or better than all the

0:32:24.140 --> 0:32:29.420
<v S1>closed source models, right? Or at least it's very close, right?

0:32:29.459 --> 0:32:33.100
<v S1>There's not some sort of hobbling, some sort of disabling

0:32:33.340 --> 0:32:38.300
<v S1>of the high quality capabilities in the lower models so

0:32:38.300 --> 0:32:40.900
<v S1>that it forces people to want to use the closed ones.

0:32:41.260 --> 0:32:43.740
<v S1>That's gross. That's what we need to avoid. We want

0:32:43.740 --> 0:32:49.290
<v S1>to be able to apply friction to tightly controlled, super

0:32:49.290 --> 0:32:53.930
<v S1>bad things that most people will never ask about anyway.

0:32:54.570 --> 0:32:57.530
<v S1>And we need to have a global sort of distribution

0:32:57.530 --> 0:33:01.850
<v S1>system for open source models based on a standard that

0:33:01.850 --> 0:33:06.290
<v S1>all the experts, right from other countries, from our countries,

0:33:06.290 --> 0:33:12.450
<v S1>from AI experts, ethical experts, cyber experts, viruses, terrorism, all

0:33:12.450 --> 0:33:15.489
<v S1>that stuff. They're the ones we all collectively come up

0:33:15.490 --> 0:33:20.370
<v S1>with these labels and then distribution points like Hugging Face

0:33:21.010 --> 0:33:23.890
<v S1>and lots of other ones, just like Hugging Face, they

0:33:23.930 --> 0:33:27.130
<v S1>are safe enabled, right? And in fact, they actually have

0:33:27.130 --> 0:33:30.890
<v S1>all the models, but you just authenticate in and it's like, oh,

0:33:30.930 --> 0:33:33.850
<v S1>I'm also a virologist and I'm also a cyber person

0:33:34.209 --> 0:33:37.410
<v S1>and I'm also a counterterrorism expert. Well, guess what? They

0:33:37.410 --> 0:33:41.170
<v S1>issue me the version of Free Thought three that doesn't

0:33:41.170 --> 0:33:45.000
<v S1>have those three controls in it. So it's just like

0:33:45.000 --> 0:33:47.120
<v S1>I'm using the regular one. It just doesn't have those

0:33:47.120 --> 0:33:51.760
<v S1>three controls. So I think this is the model that

0:33:51.760 --> 0:33:57.160
<v S1>if any super smart visiting aliens were to analyze, they'd

0:33:57.200 --> 0:33:59.520
<v S1>be like, yeah, obviously that's kind of what we need

0:33:59.760 --> 0:34:05.680
<v S1>right now. The obstacle to getting to this system is

0:34:05.680 --> 0:34:09.279
<v S1>the distrust. Someone at this planet scale event I was

0:34:09.280 --> 0:34:12.000
<v S1>just part of made a great point about this. A

0:34:12.000 --> 0:34:16.840
<v S1>big obstacle to moving towards this is cynicism. We've lost

0:34:16.840 --> 0:34:20.280
<v S1>a lot of trust in our institutions. We've lost trust

0:34:20.280 --> 0:34:24.400
<v S1>in their corporations. We've lost trust really in our governments,

0:34:24.800 --> 0:34:29.440
<v S1>our national governments, our world governments. So it's kind of

0:34:29.799 --> 0:34:32.040
<v S1>a hard pill to swallow to be like, look, we're

0:34:32.040 --> 0:34:35.320
<v S1>going to build this global consortium. It's going to be experts.

0:34:35.319 --> 0:34:37.879
<v S1>We're all going to agree. And, you know, it's going

0:34:37.920 --> 0:34:41.200
<v S1>to be a really clean standard. And you know, this

0:34:41.200 --> 0:34:44.710
<v S1>is the way it should work. Like, I think people

0:34:44.710 --> 0:34:49.350
<v S1>can get to the point of what I'm arguing to say. Yes,

0:34:49.350 --> 0:34:51.669
<v S1>I agree. If we were able to do that, that

0:34:51.670 --> 0:34:55.629
<v S1>would be good. Hopefully I've already brought you there. Then

0:34:55.630 --> 0:34:58.870
<v S1>the question is implementation. Can we really do this? Isn't

0:34:58.870 --> 0:35:01.589
<v S1>this going to be gross trying to get there? How

0:35:01.589 --> 0:35:04.670
<v S1>is what about China? Is China going to participate in this?

0:35:04.870 --> 0:35:06.870
<v S1>I don't know. I don't know if they're going to

0:35:06.870 --> 0:35:10.110
<v S1>participate in this, but this is the thing we actually

0:35:10.110 --> 0:35:13.950
<v S1>need to build. That's my argument. And that is my

0:35:13.950 --> 0:35:18.549
<v S1>explanation for why I do actually believe we should have

0:35:18.870 --> 0:35:23.509
<v S1>some narrow controls on AI models, both closed source and

0:35:23.509 --> 0:35:26.989
<v S1>open source. And I hope this spawns you to think

0:35:26.989 --> 0:35:29.189
<v S1>about it in a different way. And let me know

0:35:29.190 --> 0:35:31.910
<v S1>in the comments if you agree or disagree. If you

0:35:31.910 --> 0:35:34.069
<v S1>have some ideas about what the standard should be. I'm

0:35:34.069 --> 0:35:36.830
<v S1>actually going to start working on this with Jason and

0:35:36.830 --> 0:35:39.629
<v S1>some others. And yeah, I hope this was worth your

0:35:39.630 --> 0:35:41.150
<v S1>time and we'll see you in the next one.